Michael Pachter makes a lot of bold, albeit stupid, predictions and had he made his recent prediction prior to the launch of the PlayStation Move in September, I’d probably say it has a very low chance of coming true. However, considering how well the PlayStation Move and Microsoft Kinect has been received since launch by retail consumers, it almost feels plausible that it could hit these sales targets by the end of this year and next.

“Given recent guidance from Microsoft, it is likely that the two peripherals will have an installed base of 8 million by year-end, and depending upon pricing, we could see an installed base that approaches 20–25 million by year-end 2011,” he said in a note last night.

“These 20–25 million households are likely to buy 2–3 games apiece, resulting in software sales of 40–75 million units and publisher revenues of $1.6–3 billion next year. These sales are not all incremental; clearly, consumers who buy Kinect or Move are console owners, and presumably, they would have bought other games had they not purchased the peripherals.

“We think that the incremental contribution from the two devices will be around $500–800 million in 2011, or around 2.5–4 percent of industry sales next year.”

It’s amazing to see how quickly people have latched onto these peripherals. Frankly, I don’t have much love for motion gaming, but if it’s something casual players and families enjoy, then that’s great for the industry’s bottom line.

Do many of you guys think Microsoft’s Kinect and PlayStation’s Move could hit these lofty sales figures by the end of 2011? Obviously Sony has already shipped around 4.1 million units to retail and Microsoft has sold roughly 2.5 million Kinect products — so it 14 million more within 11 months plausible?

Let us know below.